It’s impossible to escape the gleeful headlines: as long prophesized, Disney’s once-golden goose – Marvel – spent 2023 in a period of declining critical and commercial success, potentially succumbing to the financier-feared “superhero fatigue” that industry watchers have been waiting for for years… But are we really about to witness the sudden and spectacular fall of one of Disney’s anchor IPs? It’s a question fans are facing in real time…
To start with, let’s admit the obvious: no one at Disney regrets the $4 billion that CEO Bob Iger spent to acquire the comic book company in 2009. After all, the first 33 films of the Marvel Cinematic Universe that the company’s in-house Marvel Studios spawned have generated about $30 billion in revenue – nearly a billion each on average. No franchise comes close to matching Marvel’s cinematic size, and it certainly ranks high in its pop culture longevity and consistency. That’s to say nothing of the merchandising, licensing, theme park visits, Disney+ subscriptions, and, y’know comic book sales driven by Marvel’s success.
But even Disney’s typically-tight-lipped leaders have spoken out about the need for a change at Marvel, primarily around two areas where the once-dominating brand has shown some serious flaws…
1. Over-saturation
Industry observers had warned of “superhero fatigue” since the genre began to grow in the early 2000s. But curiously when it came to a post-Iron Man world, audience “fatigue” with the genre only seemed to affect films from Warner Bros.’ DC, which routinely underperformed as the unstoppable Marvel only grew in scale and scope. It seemed that Marvel might’ve been immune, ever-expanding and digging deeper and deeper into the comic book archives to turn more and more once-obscure characters into pop culture icons. But as 2024 begins, it’s impossible not to wonder if Marvel has finally become over-saturated.
The MCU’s “Phase One” (from 2008’s Iron Man to 2012’s The Avengers) was made up of six films across five years.
“Phase Two” (from 2013’s Iron Man 3 to 2015’s Ant-Man) released the same number of films in roughly half the time – just three years.
“Phase Three” (from 2015’s Captain America: Civil War through Endgame and on to 2019’s Spider-Man: Far From Home) kept the condensed three year timeline, and crammed in eleven movies.
Even that blistering pace is nothing compared to the post-Endgame “Phase Four.” In the less-than-two years between 2021’s WandaVision and 2022’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Phase Four” was comprised of seven films, eight Disney+ television series, and two “Special Presentation” direct-to-streaming movies totaling over 50 hours of content – more than Phase One, Two, and Three combined.
Entertainment industry insiders suggest that it was former CEO Bob Chapek who prodded Marvel Studios to amplify its output in the Original Series format, churning out the content needed to power Disney+ and reach subscriber goals. Likewise, the race to press forward en route to the next mega-crossover Avengers saw an aggressive schedule of releases planned for 2023, 2024, and beyond.
For better or worse, that spread has seen highs and… well… lows. Unfortunately, 2023 saw several of the latter.
First, there was February 2023’s Ant-Man: Quantumania. Given the somewhat meandering, experimental, sprawling nature of the 50-hour “Phase Four,” Quantumania was meant to be the definitive launch of “Phase Five,” re-anchoring the MCU and officially beginning to use the chess pieces that “Phase Four” had introduced. But Quantumania was rare underperformer, earning “just” $475 million.
Worse, Quantumania had been positioned as the big screen launch of Kang the Conquerer – a Thanos-level threat set to interlace with the next 20 films en route to 2025’s Avengers: The Kang Dynasty. If many MCU fans and casual viewers skipped Quantumania and thus, missed Kang’s debut, then could the character build enough clout to matter? (Luckily, that loop was closed when the actor portraying him, Jonathan Majors, was convicted of assault in December, leading Marvel to officially part ways with the actor. That sent Marvel writers scrambling and meant Kang’s threat was dealt with – no climactic battle needed.)
The most recent miss – November 2023’s The Marvels – was expected to be a return to form for the series. After all, the film it served as a sequel to – 2019’s Captain Marvel – had survived online trolls’ attempts to deride, review bomb, and boycott the female-starring film… and had became a surprise billion dollar earner. But be it superhero fatigue, poor marketing, or a more successful online troll campaign this time around, The Marvels limped to the finish line with just a $200 million haul… By far the lowest of the MCU, and another troubling sign that Marvel might’ve spread itself too thin.
Even aside from financial frustrations, the post-Endgame MCU has been marked by several critical ones. 2021’s The Eternals earned only a 47% critical reception on Rotten Tomatoes – the first MCU film to be rated “rotten”. 2022’s Thor: Love and Thunder was unexpectedly divisive, earning just 63%. Quantumania topped out at a franchise-worst of 43%, then The Marvels at 61%. On the Disney+ front, 2023’s Secret Invasion earned an audience score of only 47%…
For the first time, “Phase Four” and “Phase Five” has created a slate where the quality of the product had become unreliable. Especially as the quantity of product grew enormously, it makes sense that fans began to have a “wait and see” approach, figuring out what’s really essential, or even beginning to turn on the MCU as a whole. Seeing sprawling but sometimes mediocre offerings that seem to lack a “big picture” plot, is it any surprise that some fans feel the MCU should’ve ended with Endgame?
And that brings us to the next issue. All of those under-performers also suffer from another major factor that’s dragging down Marvel’s post-Endgame fare… Read on as we examine the issues with over-complication in the MCU, and Disney’s plans for fixing it…
2. Over-complication
The Marvel Cinematic Universe will always be remembered as one of the boldest, brashest, and most astounding success stories in entertainment history. Inspired by the vast, interconnected continuity of the Marvel comic books themselves, the MCU’s novel idea of exploring individual character stories before bringing heroes together in Avengers crossover films was jaw-dropping and exciting. It allowed the MCU to do what “sequels” and even large “franchises” can’t – to grow boundlessly, exploring new genres and changing rosters like a super-powered soap opera, always heading toward a blockbuster.
Given the revelatory happenings of Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame, it’s really no surprise that everything from 2020 onward has been… different. The MCU has been in a period of rebuilding; a new wave of origin stories intermixing with catch-ups, character explorations, reorientations, experimentations, and more. There’s a lot to balance, and thanks to the over-saturation we mentioned earlier, a lot to keep up with… Especially since the post-Endgame phases of the MCU live beneath the umbrella of the “Multiverse Saga,” introducing cameo-laden mythologies that intersperse between realities.
To name the “major players” of the post-Endgame MCU, we’d have to offer up Scarlet Witch, Vision, Loki, a new Captain America, Winter Solder, Ms. Marvel, She-Hulk, Moon Knight, Dr. Strange, Hawkeye, Echo, Kate Bishop, Thor, a new Black Panther, Shang-Chi, the Guardians of the Galaxy, Captain Marvel, Spider-Man, Ant-Man, The Wasp, Daredevil, and Deadpool (with potential future appearances by Elektra, Wolverine, Blade, the Thunderbolts, and the Fantastic 4).
Vast mythologies, multiple realities, and interconnected stories are as integral to the DNA of the MCU as they are to the Marvel comics themselves! But if you’ve ever tried to read the Wikipedia page of a Marvel superhero, you’ll know that at some point, such stories become incomprehensibly complex, and crossovers once seen as clever and climactic can instead feel weighty, laborious, and… well… like “homework.” Feeling like you have to have seen, absorbed, and then re-watched two or three other pieces of media to “get” a new one can be daunting.
Some insiders suggest that it’s the weight of the MCU that’s beginning to see the franchise’s popularity sag. For example, industry observers suspect that the disappointing box office performance of The Marvels is at least in part due to the perception that to enjoy the triple-hero crossover, you’d need to know the stories of Carol Danvers (2019’s Captain Marvel), Monica Rambeau (2021’s Disney+ exclusive WandaVision) and Kamala Khan (2022’s Disney+ exclusive Ms. Marvel). Whether that’s true or not doesn’t entirely matter, since if potential viewers even feel that they need to do homework to understand a movie, they might avoid it… or worse, just wait until it’s on Disney+ for “free.”
It’s really no surprise that the multiversal expansion of the MCU has yielded increasing complexity, and that for some fans who sense diminishing returns, decreasing quality, or a slate of new heroes that don’t pique their interest, waiting for Disney+ or for an Avengers film that promises must-see cameos seems like the best course of action for now. That’s a shift Disney is hoping to change…
Fixing the MCU
It’s hard to believe that less than five years ago, Avengers: Endgame had achieved the unthinkable, becoming the highest grossing film of all time – the pinnacle of a decade of pop culture domination without a single box office flop in sight. Today, just half a decade later, words like “inconsistent” and “uncertain” dominate fan discourse, and with a pretty disappointing 2023 in the rear view mirror, the first glimpse at Disney’s rethinking of the brand is clear. How?
1. De-saturation
“At the time the pandemic hit, we were leaning into a huge increase in how much we were making,” Disney CEO Bob Iger said during Disney’s earnings call in November 2023. “And I’ve always felt that quantity can be actually a negative when it comes to quality, and I think that’s exactly what happened. We lost some focus.”
Just one MCU film will release in 2024: the third entry (but Disney’s first) in the R-rated Deadpool franchise, reunited with Marvel though Disney’s $71 billion 2019 purchase of 20th Century Fox. (Three other films once planned for 2024 – Captain America: Brave New World, Blade, and Thunderbolts – have been delayed to 2025. Several Disney+ Original Series have been delayed or de-listed, too.)
Will distance make the heart grow fonder? And just as importantly, will the slow-down on Marvel productions give Feige and the creative team time to reorient and reorganize around an audience that looks less hungry for content, and more insistent on quality? We’ll see… Meanwhile, Disney has another plan.
2. De-complication
In a franchise formed by crossovers and pursuits of the “bigger picture” thread, it simply won’t be possible to remove complication. Besides, Disney can’t really win in this fight anyway. Smaller, self-contained stories are accused of being boring, skippable, or filler. (Fans spent most of Phase Four whining that the threads of a larger crossover or a “Big Bad” weren’t being laid quickly enough.) But of course, when those intertwined crossovers do come out, fans say they’re filled with forced fan service cameos or require too much homework.
Still, Iger does have an answer here. “There’s nothing in any way inherently off in terms of the Marvel brand,” Iger said. “I think we just have to look at what characters and stories we’re mining, and you look at the trajectory of Marvel over the next five years, you’ll see a lot of newness. We’re going to turn back to the Avengers franchise, but with a whole different set of Avengers.”
He continued: “Sequels typically worked well for us, [but] do you need a third and a fourth, for instance? Or is it time to turn to other characters?”
It’s something of a bold notion: that basically, de-complicating the MCU means finally taking your foot off the dock of the past and stepping into the boat of the new. Especially with a funneling down of the spread of Marvel across Disney+, it’s possible that the era of expansion is over, and that we’ll now see Marvel retract from the litany of heroes it’s introduced down into a core Avengers team once more. Heroes who don’t make that team may have fought their last, and holdouts from the Infinity Saga – like Ant-Man, Thor, and Captain Marvel – have likely had their last big screen entry.
It’s a big ask: to return the MCU to box office dominance by thinking small, and giving consumers a chance to miss the heroes again. Will it work? Well… keep an eye on 2024 and 2025 to find out…
